Societe Generale Futures supply stable release of iron ore peaked clazziquai

The industrial Futures: steady supply of iron ore release peaked clients view the latest market strategy report: buy I1701- sell I1705 combination, and short unilateral I1705 core logic: 1 large mines supply flat, small mines, domestic ore supply has increased, the overall iron ore supply pressure is still large. 2 the mill operating rate is close to the peak, with the outlook overweight supply side reforms, as well as the real estate market cooling, the long-term demand for iron ore will be reduced to increase. 3 since the beginning of the contract, due to excessive pessimism on the market for iron ore, resulting in the near future contract delivery, the continuous spread of the trend of the 1505 consecutive sets. Risk: 1 domestic fiscal stimulus than expected, infrastructure and real estate market demand, in the long term demand is expected to gain strength. (the low probability) 2.1 month contract premium continued, selling hedging contracts in recent months to suppress. (currently 01 contracts continued large discount, buy selling of stock no chance) operating strategy: 1 to buy I1609- sell I1701 open interval: try to take positions in the 25-20 range gradually spread; full stop: in more than 40 profit spreads gradually, gradually spread in the 15 stop; position control: position control in 30% for the first time, the control positions within 15% positions. 2 short I1705 interval: unilateral open space Jiancang in the range of 370-385; full stop: in the vicinity of 350 profit, stop loss 10 points floating Jiancang price. Position control: total position control at 40%, or less than 1000 hands. Full stop: first, the four mines production was flat, non mainstream mine actively expansion: 2016 quarterly report from the four mines in two, except for BHP samarco tailings production up by breaching of the dike, Rio Tinto, vale and FMG yield growth in varying degrees. 2016 four mine production increased compared to 2015, and is expected in 2017 production will be flat with the year in 2016. Table 1 data sources of the production of the four major mines: Societe Generale futures research and consulting department compared with the top four mines, the expansion of foreign small and medium mines and domestic mines more positive attitude. By the end of 2015, due to the decline in iron ore prices, some small mines announced production or discontinued. 2016, benefiting from the ore price increase, the production and sales of small and medium mines in the first quarter rebounded to normal high level. Among them, Minas-Rio2016 target output of 1500-1800 million tons, an increase of 50%-80%; Australia’s Altas2016 target production of its highest production capacity of 1200-1400 tons. Overall, with the Brazil Minas-Rio mine, India Goa mine, Australia Serra Roy Hill mine, Leon Don Kerry Lee mine expansion, the future iron ore supply of small mines will appear more substantial increase. Table 22016 data sources of overseas small and medium mine production: Societe Generale futures research and consulting department.相关的主题文章: