GF housing market funds back to the stock market needs two conditions to maintain the slow bear judg-lm3886

GF: return of the housing market funds two stock market conditions remain volatile Slow Bear judgment sina finance App: Live on-line blogger to guide the purchase of new shares: the stock market is the most simple way to pick up the money GF strategy Chen Jie Zheng Kai Cao Liulong this week this week is the strategic point of view, the National Day holiday, we will leave the main domestic and foreign data changes together the table below for your reference, the main changes are: 1, domestic changes: during the National Day golden week, the tourists trips, tourism revenue, retail and catering revenue maintained two digit growth, the movie box office bottlenecks, compared with 14.6% decline; 2, Hong Kong stocks change: Hongkong stock market overall rise, the energy (oil service) led, led by real estate and public utilities; 3, the global stock market: the United States and the German stock market fell slightly, the general rise in other markets; 4, global commodity city A: the price of gold fell sharply, crude oil, shipping index rose; 5, the exchange rate market: the dollar index rose, the exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar and FOB has depreciated; 6, market regulation: domestic 21 city issued a purchase of the property market policies. The above changes in market regulation overweight is undoubtedly the focus of the problem, so many investors concerned about whether the purchase of city restart can really reduce the housing prices? And if the decline in housing prices will be forced back to the stock market? On the above issues, our view is: 1, since 2005 the price trend, the price of the callback has certain rules, and to use the administrative regulation of power to reverse cycle trend is difficult. Since 2005, domestic prices almost keeps the trend of rising, and every three years there will be a downward adjustment (08 September, 11 in September, 14 in May), but the adjustment is not (each callback is bottom up). The real estate regulation overweight, you can learn from history after May 2010 the city issued the first "purchase order" of the period, but it was on the price formation of two months of short-term suppression, but not really reverse the trend of rising prices — in the "purchase order" issued after more than a year (September 2011), prices did not appear in the true sense of the callback, and then superimposed on the impact of monetary policy tightening, economic cycle and other factors fall down. 2, the current round of real estate regulation is also in opposition to the cycle trend, so it is necessary to continue to increase the effectiveness of the regulation in the short term, and even the need for monetary policy coordination. In the past every time the price adjustment of the "normal" time interval is three years, and now from a round of price adjustment only after two years and four months, so a bit "and periodic trends against" the start of market regulation at this point. According to the 2010 market regulation experience, to see the effect is difficult in the short term, unless the policy of pressure to continue to overweight, even with the tightening of monetary policy. 3, further, if the current round of real estate regulation is effective in the short term, whether it will lead to the housing market funds back to the stock market? Domestic experience shows that: monetary easing cycle of falling house prices or favorable to the stock market, but the housing price decline in the monetary tightening cycle will not make the return of funds相关的主题文章: