Category Archives: Real Estate

Five lines of mobile phone transfers free of charge free order is also a competition 关怀备至的意思

The big five mobile phone transfer fee free: free competition is order is five line transfer fee free mobile phone in the future, the use of the five big state-owned banks mobile phone bank transfers, users will no longer pay the transfer fee. Yesterday, ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, construction bank, Bank of communications announced that the current use of mobile banking transfer will be free of fees. The "free era" of the bank or the opening. The free transfer fee for mobile phone yesterday, the five lines in the "strengthening account management, promoting Inclusive Finance joint signing ceremony, announced that the mobile phone bank for RMB remittance transfers remittance, waive the fee waiving fees to customers 5000 yuan RMB in Internet banking. Since February 25th, ICBC has implemented a free policy for the transfer and remittance of mobile banking." Yesterday, ICBC relevant responsible person said to the Beijing morning news reporters, mobile phone bank of China remittance free coverage of debit cards, credit cards, financial card and wealth account. Free online banking time will be notified. Banks, such as CCB, ABC, BOC and bocom, have also indicated that the use of mobile banks in the territory transfers fees free of charge. While the five free time of online banking is different, the CCB and ABC have started free since yesterday, and the Bank of China will be free from April 1st. In fact, the Bank of China, CCB and other end of the year since the beginning of the transfer of mobile phone free of charge policy. Previously, most of the bank’s mobile phone banking and online banking transfers are also relatively counter relief. ICBC mobile phone bank, off-site transfer is the implementation of the standard implementation of counter 80 percent off, counter standard 70 percent off ABC mobile phone bank fee policy; ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank online banking, interbank transfers are subject to different counter standard 50 percent off policy. It is understood that the current state-owned bank counter or offsite interbank transfer charges is 2 thousand yuan each (including 2 yuan); 2 thousand -0.5 million yuan (including 5 yuan); 5 thousand -1 million yuan (including 10 yuan); 10 thousand -5 million yuan (including 15 yuan) of more than 50 thousand yuan; the amount of the transfer, by 0.03%, the highest 50 yuan pen". Many banks reiterated the transfer free of charge, CITIC Bank as early as December 1, 2015 ushered in the "online banking transfer all free" era." At the same time, the banks that have already cancelled the transfer fee have also been "busy", and reiterated that the transfer is free. Last September, China Merchants Bank, Ningbo bank and other banks have announced online transfer free personal customers for any domestic transfer business by China Merchants Bank online banking, mobile phone banking APP, enjoy zero tariff. This action caused the shock of the banking industry, other joint-stock banks, city commercial banks have followed. Last December, the central bank issued "on the improvement of personal bank account service notice" to strengthen the management of accounts, to encourage banks to depositors through the remittance business free of charge a certain amount of online banking, mobile phone bank for the following. According to a survey conducted by the China electronic banking network, there are 70 theories by the end of the year

五大行手机转账免手续费:免费是命令也是角逐   五大行手机转账免手续费   今后,使用五大国有银行的手机银行转账,用户将不再支付转账手续费。昨日,工商银行、农业银行、中国银行、建设银行、交通银行集体宣布,即日起用手机银行转账将免收手续费。银行的“免费时代”或就此开启。   国有行全免手机转账手续费   昨日,五大行在“加强账户管理,推进普惠金融”联合签约仪式上宣布,手机银行办理境内人民币转账汇款免收手续费、对客户5000元以下的境内人民币网上银行转账汇款免收手续费。   “从2月25日开始,工行对手机银行境内转账汇款业务实行全免费政策。”昨日,工商银行相关负责人向北京晨报记者表示,手机银行境内转账汇款免费的范围覆盖借记卡、信用卡、理财金卡及财富账户。网银免费时间将另行通知。   建行、农行、中行、交行等银行也纷纷表示,使用手机银行在境内转账,均免收手续费。而网银免费时间五大行时间相异,建行、农行昨日起已经开始免费,中行将自4月1日起免费。   实际上,中行、建行等自去年底就已经开始了手机转账免收手续费的政策。此前,大多数银行的手机银行以及网银也相对柜面转账进行了减免。工行手机银行跨行、异地转账实行的是柜面标准的2折,农行手机银行则实行柜面标准3折的收费政策;工行、农行、建行网银异地、跨行转账均实行柜面标准5折的政策。   据了解,目前国有银行柜面异地或跨行转账收费的标准是“每笔0.2万元(含)以下的2元;0.2万-0.5万元(含)的5元;0.5万-1万元(含)的10元;1万-5万元(含)的15元;5万元以上的,按转账金额的0.03%,最高50元 笔”。   多家银行重申转账免费   “中信银行早在2015年12月1日起就迎来了‘网银转账全免费’时代。”在国有行抱团发布转账免费声明的同时,此前早已取消转账手续费的银行也纷纷“凑热闹”,重申转账免费。   去年9月,招商银行、宁波银行等多家银行相继宣布网上转账全免,即个人客户通过招商银行网上银行、手机银行APP办理境内任何转账业务,均享受零费率。这一举动引起了银行业界的震动,其他股份制银行、城商行纷纷效仿。   去年12月份,央行发布《关于改进个人银行账户服务加强账户管理的通知》,鼓励银行对存款人通过网上银行、手机银行办理的一定金额以下的转账汇款业务免收手续费。   一项来自中国电子银行网的调查显示,至去年底,已有70家银行开展网银、手机银行转账免费政策。而今年,更有如平安银行等多家银行也加入转账免费大军。更有如恒丰银行,在其他银行均表示“境内转账免费”之时表示,恒丰银行在全球转账均免费。   免费是命令也是角逐   业内人士对北京晨报记者表示,虽然央行上述相关文件中的是“鼓励”之词,但其实央行态度十分坚决,今年4月1日起,央行将对还未实施落实减免手续费的银行进行收费,以督促银行实现免费。   不过,虽然有央行文件的督促,但转账免费也源于另一场看不见的战争。   “银行都在抢夺用户,降低转账手续费不仅可以带来更多的新用户,也会让老用户的黏性更高。”中央财经大学中国银行业研究中心主任郭田勇表示,银行取消网上银行转账手续费,与银行自身竞争激烈及银行互联网化程度加深有关,随着互联网金融服务的日益深化,网上转账成本降低,也促使银行减免手续费。   融360分析师认为,银行业竞争的压力,还来源于第三方支付巨头的崛起。随着支付宝、微信等第三方支付渠道的普及,客户通过第三方支付渠道完成转账等业务往往不需要承担手续费。五大行免收手机银行转账手续费只是顺应了“免费时代”的趋势。   值得注意的是,此前微信发布公告,虽然将在3月1日起收取提现手续费,但却暂停了微信转账的手续费。至此,通过第三方支付手机APP渠道进行转账均恢复免费。   ■链接   五大行推进账户分类   Ⅲ类账户可用于绑定非银行支付账户   昨日,五大国有银行在北京举行“加强账户管理,推进普惠金融”联合签约仪式,共同推进如银行账户实名制、账户分类等相关事宜。   据介绍,此次签约后,五行将进一步加强客户信息安全保护,严格开户过程个人客户的身份审核,避免客户账户信息泄露。同时,按照人民银行关于账户分类管理的规定,在4月1日前完成对存量账户的Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ类账户区分标识,支持客户通过线上或自助设备开立Ⅱ、Ⅲ类账户,满足客户存款、购买投资理财产品等金融产品、限定金额的消费和缴费支付等服务需求。面对目前层出不穷的外部互联网欺诈和线上支付风险,五大行主动为客户开立Ⅲ类账户,客户自行激活后可用于对外绑定非银行支付账户进行小额消费和缴费支付,从而将“金库”和“钱包”隔离,有效保护资金安全。   ■提示   那些已经免费的银行服务   ●小额管理费   2014年8月份起,银监会、国家发改委发布的《商业银行服务价格管理办法》正式实施,银行小额管理费用取消。所谓小额管理费用,是银行向银行卡内低于某一金额资金的客户收取的管理费。按照此前多数银行收费标准,日均余额低于一定数额(300元至500元)的账户收取小额账户管理费,每季度3元。   ●普通银行卡年费   2014年8月份起,普通银行卡的年费取消。此前,大部分银行的年费收费标准是10元 年,有的银行会给予客户首年免费,刷卡消费达到一定次数免费的优惠。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

TOYOTA recalls 2 million 870 thousand cars worldwide 八千里路云和月下一句

The problem with TOYOTA security will ferment the global recall of 2 million 870 thousand cars with safety problems of fermentation TOYOTA global recall of 2 million 870 thousand cars – reporter Wu Xintao TOYOTA announced that 18 will recall 2 million 870 thousand cars worldwide. The reason is that these cars in the event of a collision accident, the safety belt may be damaged seat pad metal frame. TOYOTA said that the global recall covers the RAV4 sport utility vehicle (SUV) produced from July 2005 to August 2014, as well as the Vanguard SUV models that were produced and sold in Japan from October 2005 to January 2016. From the regional and market point of view, TOYOTA USA has recalled 1 million 300 thousand troubled cars in North America, and TOYOTA has recalled 625 thousand, 434 thousand, 177 thousand and 307 thousand cars in Europe, China, Japan and other regions respectively. The largest car manufacturer in the world says it will install a resin sleeve on all metal seats on the seat pad of the affected vehicle to prevent the metal parts from being broken during the crash. It is reported that TOYOTA had received two seat belts since the crash was cut off report. Enter Sina Financial shares] discussion

丰田安全带问题发酵 将全球召回287万辆汽车   安全带问题发酵 丰田全球召回287万辆汽车   □本报记者 吴心韬   丰田汽车18日宣布,将在全球范围内召回287万辆汽车,原因是这些汽车在发生碰撞事故时,其安全带可能会被座椅垫金属框架损坏。   丰田表示,此次全球召回覆盖2005年7月至2014年8月生产的RAV4运动型多功能车(SUV)车型,以及2005年10月至2016年1月生产并在日本销售的Vanguard SUV车型。   从地区和市场上看,丰田美国公司已在北美宣布召回130万辆问题汽车,丰田也已在欧洲、中国、日本和其他地区分别宣布召回的62.5万辆、43.4万辆、17.7万辆和30.7万辆汽车。   这家全球最大的汽车生产商表示,将在所有受影响车辆的座椅垫金属框架上安装树脂套,以防发生碰撞事故时出现的金属部件切断安全带的情形。据悉,此前丰田曾收到两起后座安全带因车辆碰撞被切断的报告。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

据了解 风流小农民张光荣

How to buy second-hand house in peak season, Sina fund exposure platform: letter Phi lag false propaganda, performance for a long time lower than similar products, buy fund by pit how to do? Click on [I want to complain], Sina help you expose them! The season to buy second-hand housing how to bargain text Journal reporter Zhen Aijun market has entered the current market bargain opportunities demand season, increasing market demand, the prices rise, whether this means that second-hand housing buyers can only passively accept the seller’s offer and leaves no room for? It is understood that in the past August, the Shanghai property market has experienced an increase in volume and price ". According to the Shanghai chain Market Research Department data show that in August, Shanghai new commercial housing turnover of 1 million 870 thousand square meters, up 42.2%, up 50.1%; average transaction price of 42384 yuan square meters, up 13.6%, up 40.2%. Industry insiders pointed out that the reasons for the sudden turnover in August mainly due to the following aspects: first, due to the reduction in the supply of new markets, leading to the contradiction between supply and demand of the market is more prominent. Data show that in August the supply of 398 thousand square meters, a decline of 49.4%, down 48.7%; supply and demand ratio, the supply and demand ratio of 0.21:1 in August, the supply and demand ratio further reduced, and has been in short supply for 3 consecutive months. The second is the impact of a real estate intermediary by rumors, rumors said the regulation to tighten policy, leading to market panic buying, such as August 26th to 31 new residential transaction sets have reached more than 700 sets, including 30 new commercial housing turnover reached 1314 units, compared with the daily average of 300 to 400 sets of volume of new homes over 3 ~ 4 times this year, for the single day trading volume second, the highest single day record this year after the "325 new" before the introduction of the March record 24. But this market is not sustainable. It is understood that although the market rumors in August led to a sharp increase in turnover, but "3 / 25" after the new deal, Shanghai property market demand has stabilized, so the transaction temporarily peatlands, did not change the current market structure. At the same time, with the advent of the traditional peak season, housing prices push plate enthusiasm rising, the market supply will increase again, supply and demand will tend to be stable. Based on the above analysis, it is not difficult to find that although the property market because of the change of supply and demand structure makes the seller take the initiative, but the buyer still has the opportunity to bargain. This is because the current prices experienced a wave of Shanghai market, now at a high stage, need time to digest, so when prices in the "sideways" stage, which provides space for buyers and sellers bargaining. Because the current market has the characteristics of the seller’s market, the buyer must pay attention to the strategy in order to improve the probability of success. It should be noted that the current market prices determine the price range can not be too large, because in the house prices rose steadily period, the landlord is expected to be higher, so the bargaining space was not large. At the same time, it is necessary to discuss the bargain target

旺季买二手房如何砍价 新浪基金曝光台:信披滞后虚假宣传,业绩长期低于同类产品,买基金被坑怎么办?点击【我要投诉】,新浪帮你曝光他们!   旺季买二手房如何砍价   文 本刊记者 甄爱军     市场仍有砍价机会   目前楼市又进入了需求旺季,市场需求大增,使得房价出现攀升,这是否意味着二手房买家只能被动地接受卖家的报价而没有还价的余地了呢?   据了解,在刚刚过去的8月,上海楼市又经历了一次“量增价涨”过程。据上海链家市场研究部数据显示,8月上海市新建商品住宅成交量为187万平方米,环比上涨42.2%,同比上涨50.1%;成交均价为42384元 平方米,环比上涨13.6%,同比上涨40.2%。   业内人士分析指出,导致8月份成交突然放量的原因主要有以下几个方面:   其一是由于市场新增供应的减少,导致市场供需间的矛盾较为突出。数据显示,8月份供应量为39.8万平方米,环比下滑49.4%,同比下滑48.7%;供求比方面,8月供求比为0.21:1,供求比进一步缩小,并已连续3个月处于供不应求的态势。   其二则是受到流言影响,有房产中介造谣称调控政策即将收紧,导致市场出现恐慌性购买情形,如8月26日至31日新建商品住宅成交套数均达到700套以上,其中30日新建商品住宅成交量达到1314套,较日均300~400套的新房成交量翻了3~4倍,为今年以来单日成交量第二高,仅次于今年“325新政”出台前的3月24日创下的单日最高纪录。   不过这种行情不具有可持续性。据了解,虽然8月份受到市场流言影响导致成交量激增,但“3・25”新政之后,上海楼市需求已经趋于平稳,所以成交暂时性放量,并未改变当前市场格局。同时随着传统旺季的到来,房企推盘热情上升,市场供应会再次加大,供需之间会趋于平稳。   基于上述分析不难发现,虽然楼市因为供需结构的变化而使得卖方占据主动,但买方仍然具有讨价还价的机会。这是因为当前房价经历一波上海行情之后,目前已经处于阶段性的高点,需要一段时间来消化,所以当房价处于“横盘”阶段时,这给买卖双方讨价还价提供了相应空间。     以变应变灵活砍价   由于当前市场具有卖方市场特征,所以买方砍价一定要讲究策略,以提高成功的概率。   需要注意的是,当前市场行情决定砍价幅度不能过大,因为在房价平稳上涨时期,房东预期较高,所以议价空间原本不大。同时对于砍价目标也需要进行研究,最好是针对报价虚高的物业出手砍价,而按照市场平均价格挂牌出售的,则完全没有必要讨价还价。   总之,在当前市场环境下,要结合市场行情来灵活制订砍价策略。那么,应该如何操作呢?下面我们根据当前市场具体情况,来进行有针对性的说明。   砍价幅度不宜过大   首先需要明确的是,在当前市场环境下,二手房卖家不会也不可能接受大幅让价的要求。从市场整体供应结构来看,当前上海楼市仍处于供不应求阶段,在这种市场环境下,只要价格合适,成交的概率很高。因此这导致不少二手房卖家期望值较高,大多数人都不会接受还价的要求。   不过有业内人士提醒说,由于少量房源挂牌价虚高,而卖家又诚意出售,这时候可以考虑砍价。记者了解到,目前市面上能够接受的议价幅度最多不会超过10万元,而对于面积较小的二手房,让价幅度在3万~5万元。当然,对于一些总价超过千万元的高端住宅,让价空间会更大一些。   掌握更多卖家信息   兵家有言,不打没有准备的仗。买房也是一样,在砍价之前,也需要尽可能多地掌握卖家信息和房源信息,尤其是二手房的弱点有哪些,一定要摸清楚。   正所谓“知己知彼,百战不殆”,了解卖家多方面背景,以往的购房经历、家庭背景、经济实力、卖房目的、个性等,同时想方设法要取得对方的好感和信任,让他们愿意主动作出让步。   对房子的优劣势要一清二楚,了解优势是方便日后自己居住,而了解物业缺点,则是方便谈判时作为突破口,向卖家施压,使其产生心理暗示:“我的房产有些缺陷,如果不讲价,对方是不愿意接受的”,从而让自己处于有利地位。   建立多次砍价策略   提出比你真正想要的价格还要低的价格,其目的是为了给自己一些谈判的空间;给卖家也有一些还价的空间,避免产生僵局;当然,对于还价幅度的确定也非常有讲究,不能让卖家难以接受,最好是找到一个“双赢”价,既让自己获得了实惠,也让卖家觉得赢得了谈判。   第一次报价为何要低于自己的心理预期呢?这是因为卖家大多不会接受第一次报价,要么一口咬定不肯让步,要么在其报价的基础上稍微下浮一点以试探买家的底线。所以如果第一次真正想要的价格并坚持己见,往往会让卖家觉得买家没有诚意而拒绝作进一步接触。   当面砍价更为有效   忌讳刚看到房源就砍价。比如看到一套房源,在房产经纪人都不清楚自身需求的前提下,就随口询问对方底价、折扣幅度,一般得不到对方的积极回应。一般情况下,有经验的房产经纪人会在详细了解客户实际需求的前提下再推荐房源,以提高成交的成功概率。   而对于随口就问底价的客户,房产经纪人通常会认为对方只是打探市场情况而不会真正考虑买房,所以也就不会把底牌亮出来。再说,房产经纪人如果过早亮出自己的底牌,也不利于他们开展后续工作。所以,为了砍价成功,买家先不必急于打听价格情况,而是先行接触,在接触过程中逐渐了解情况,谋定而后动。   此外,在电话中砍价的做法对自己也不是很有利。有房产经纪人非常明确的告诉记者,他一般不会在电话中的答应买家砍价要求,尤其是第一通电话就砍价的客户,更是不会与其讨价还价,当然也不会拒绝买家的要求。这是因为在电话中,房产经纪人一般难以判断对方是否有诚意买房,所以他们会把新客户约来见面作为第一目标,而老客户也约到跟前当面商谈。   借助外力辅助砍价   在谈判过程中,可以稍微向卖方施加一点压力。比如当谈判陷入僵局时,可以让自己的爱人在旁边提示自己,如果对方不肯让步,我们就准备考虑“备胎”,同时还可以煞有介事地商量一番,同时观察卖家的反应,并采取有针对性的举措。   进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

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Sugar: crazy bull market, Sina fund exposure platform: letter Phi lag false propaganda, performance is lower than the same product for a long time, buy fund by pit how to do? Click on [I want to complain], Sina help you expose them! An overview of the market both ICE sugar or sugar Zheng staged crazy bull market. The Mid Autumn Festival, Zheng sugar sugar to follow the form of gapped opened, began a wave of violent market upside, 2 weeks rose 500 points, an unprecedented strong speculative atmosphere, buying time, top man one by one, one after another. But there is virtually no change in fundamentals, excessive speculation may lead to a more severe pullback, and the risks are also increasing. The soaring operation logic of 9 months for two reasons. First, the outer disk has been rising, from Brazilian Indian sugar production, to rise in space; secondly, the Ministry of Commerce Chinese investigation of imports of sugar, this is an anti-dumping investigation in nature, direct initiation of the domestic market, at the end of each day at a new high. The view points out that the reduction of production in Brazil and India has laid the keynote for the global sugar supply gap, and that the world is lack of sugar. However, the short-term rapid drawing market is affected by the Ministry of Commerce’s investigation and speculation on imported sugar. More than 6500 of the price of sugar has been out of the fundamentals, high price and not long-term maintenance, the stampede of speculative funds played a profit and even cause the killing occurred, investors need to avoid risks, profits as soon as possible, don’t be too greedy. In October the country risk prompt storage reserves may be 800 thousand tons, the starting price is probably just 6000 — 6200, have a certain role to stabilize prices. Profit from speculative funds may also lead to stampede. Sugar: the crazy bull market " style=" border:0px; max-width:100%; display:block; margin:1em Auto; " > in September the market is crazy! Two weeks after the Mid Autumn Festival, Zheng sugar exploded 500 points, completely out of the basic situation, into the game of capital game. Spot price rise, 6400 below the turnover is acceptable, but when the price comes to more than 6500, the lack of buyers, there is no price city. Figure 1: sugar futures and basis chart (Figure 2 yuan ton): the main trend of spot market price (million tons) of sugar: the crazy bull market " style=" border:0px; max-width:100%; display:block; margin:1em Auto; " > source: Wind Changjiang Futures Research Department sources: Wind Changjiang futures research two, the fundamental operation of 1. from Brazil to cut the rice yield and speculation again in Brazil last month, said this month that production and production, the rice is fried in fact boring. We have already pointed out that Pakistan theory

白糖:疯狂的多头行情 新浪基金曝光台:信披滞后虚假宣传,业绩长期低于同类产品,买基金被坑怎么办?点击【我要投诉】,新浪帮你曝光他们!   市场综述   月无论 ICE 原糖还是郑糖都上演疯狂的多头行情。中秋节后,郑糖跟随原糖以跳空的形式高开,开始一波极其猛烈的上攻行情,2 个星期上涨 500 点,投机氛围空前浓厚,买盘不断,高位接盘侠一个接一个,前赴后继。但基本面实际上没有什么变化,过度投机可能带来更加猛烈的回调,风险也在日益增大。   运行逻辑   9月的暴涨就两点原因:第一,外盘一直在涨,传巴西、印度减产,给原糖以上涨的空间;第二,中国商务部立案调查进口糖,这是个反倾销性质的调查,直接引爆国内市场,月末每天都在创新高。   观点阐述   我们认为,巴西、印度的减产给全球食糖供应缺口奠定基调,全球是缺糖的。但是,短期的快速拉伸行情则是受到商务部对进口糖立案调查和资金炒作影响的。6500 以上的糖价已经脱离了基本面情况,高糖价并不能长期维持,投机资金获利出场时甚至会造成多杀多的踩踏事件发生,需要投资者及早获利平仓,规避风险,不要太贪。   风险提示   10 月国储放储量可能 80 万吨,起拍价也可能只是 6000――6200,对平抑糖价有一定作用。投机资金的平仓获利也可能引发踩踏。   白糖:疯狂的多头行情" style="border:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;margin:1em auto;" >   九月的行情太疯狂了!中秋节后的两周郑糖爆涨 500 点,完全脱离基本面情况,进入资金博弈的大战。现货趁机涨价,6400 以下成交尚可,但当价格来到 6500 以上时,缺乏买家,有价无市。   图 1:白糖期货主力与基差走势图(元 吨) 图 2:主要现货市场价格走势(元 吨) 白糖:疯狂的多头行情" style="border:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;margin:1em auto;" >   资料来源:Wind 长江期货研究部 资料来源:Wind 长江期货研究部   二、基本面运行   1.巴西从增产到减产的现饭又炒了一遍   巴西方面,上个月还说增产,这个月又说减产,这种现饭炒着其实没意思。我们早就指出,巴西由于其先进的大规模机械化生产,他的产量其实在制糖期初就已经估计的八九不离十了,其后的调整并不大,对糖价没有实质影响。但巴西毕竟是第一大产糖国,国际糖的炒手要炒糖,怎么能不利用巴西这个题材呢,于是大洋彼岸,一个又一个的故事传入耳朵,他们要做空的时候就说巴西增产,要做多的时候就说巴西减产,现饭炒了一遍又一遍,但是这饭还是有人愿意吃,愿意上当。   图 3:巴西供需平衡图 白糖:疯狂的多头行情" style="border:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;margin:1em auto;" >   白糖:疯狂的多头行情" style="border:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;margin:1em auto;" >   资料来源:Wind 长江期货研究部   2.印度政府竟然不如一个公司主管   白糖:疯狂的多头行情" style="border:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;margin:1em auto;" >   巴西的产量并不是左右国际糖价的症结,而印度产量却是。印度素来以编故事著称,其北方邦因为政治和农业原因,还无法准确估计其甘蔗产量。因此印度糖产量在国际糖市里经常是飘忽不定,引发国际糖价的波动。现在,印度真的减产了,但是印度政府说了,虽然减产,但是我们的消费也减了,所以我们的糖够吃,我们不进口。然而国际市场不相信印度政府,认为印度人天生就是白糖的吃货,一定会一直大力地吃下去,不会减少消费量,所以屏蔽印度政府的发声。这个时候,路易达孚的一个小小的白糖分部的主管站出来说了,印度产不足需,他们要进口 100 万吨。市场瞬间燃爆了,国际糖价来到了 24 美分附近,创了一个又一个的多年来的新高。印度政府居然不如一个公司的主管有影响力,是这个国家的可悲,还是这个市场的可笑?   图 4:ICE 持仓 白糖:疯狂的多头行情" style="border:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;margin:1em auto;" >   白糖:疯狂的多头行情" style="border:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;margin:1em auto;" >   资料来源:Wind 长江期货研究部   3.商务部调查进口糖之谜   商务部发出公告称,由于接到某足够分量(产量占全国产量的 15%以上)的糖企申请(其实我们知道这是谁),开始对进口糖进行为期半年的调查,看看是否有倾销问题,从而决定是否提高配额内外的关税以保护民族产业。这则消息是中秋后引爆糖价的关键所在。炒手们甚至在大大小小的网站鼓吹商务部要拿出 150%的配额外关税了,届时糖价必然要上 10000!对,您没听错,是一万。他们鼓吹到,这些年国产糖企业濒临破产,非常凄惨,而进口糖数量非常庞大,冲击国内市场,所以要调查、要提关税。但是有这么一个问题,国产糖企业前几年是很惨,但是今年基本都赚钱了,进口糖前几年是很多,但是今年大幅减少了,为什么糖企最惨的那几年不提,进口糖最多的那几年不提,到了今时今日,国产糖企开始赚钱了,进口糖大幅减少了,突然提了?这在逻辑上合理么?其实也合理,只不过合理的理由并不是炒手们鼓吹的企业惨和进口多,而是巴西在对我国的钢铁进行发倾销调查,商务部只不过利用进口糖进行一个回击式的调查,其结果不仅现在还没出来,就是出来了,只要巴西那边不太过分了,我们这边大抵也是维持原来的关税而已。所以,投资者要搞清楚商务部为什么在这个时点接这桩事,企业申请调查进口糖绝不是今年才申请的,他们年年申请,商务部为什么在以前企业那么惨的时候不接,现在接?搞清楚了这个来龙去脉就不会被表象所迷惑而跟风瞎做。   白糖:疯狂的多头行情" style="border:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;margin:1em auto;" >   白糖:疯狂的多头行情" style="border:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;margin:1em auto;" >   图 5:配额内外进口糖利润 白糖:疯狂的多头行情" style="border:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;margin:1em auto;" >   白糖:疯狂的多头行情" style="border:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;margin:1em auto;" >   资料来源:Wind 长江期货研究部   4.博弈大战战况   6500 以上,行情完全脱离基本面,进入资金博弈大战,那么战况如何。以现在的价格来说,自然是多头赢了。到了 9 月底,空头平均拿着 200 点以上的亏损,还要承受交易所提高保证金到正常的 2 倍的压力,心里一定是非常难受的。而主力多头的战略,也是利用国庆节提保这件事,在空头的伤口上再狠狠地撒一把盐,让空头砍仓,趁着空头买入平仓把价格支撑住的时候,多头也好开始在高位减仓,拿着两周超过 100%的利润幸福地为祖国庆生。   三、技术分析   1.ICE 原糖 3 月   图 6:ICE 原糖 3 月走势图 白糖:疯狂的多头行情" style="border:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;margin:1em auto;" >   白糖:疯狂的多头行情" style="border:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;margin:1em auto;" >   白糖:疯狂的多头行情" style="border:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;margin:1em auto;" >   ICE 原糖 3 月除了上涨还是上涨,一根筋的行情,上升趋势线斜率非常陡峭,轴线 MACD 顶背离已经非常明显,中幅回撤箭在弦上,不可避免。   2.郑糖 1701   图 7:郑糖 1701 走势图 白糖:疯狂的多头行情" style="border:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;margin:1em auto;" >   白糖:疯狂的多头行情" style="border:0px;max-width:100%;display:block;margin:1em auto;" >   郑糖 1701 中秋节后跳空上涨,缺口为 6330――6410,缺口 80 点,跳空后几乎直线上涨,每日涨幅在50-80 元 吨。指标均为多头指标,但 6700 以上超买已经非常严重,不应再追高。   四、结论   9 月翘尾行情演绎的非常精彩,但这对于中国糖业来说并不健康。上涨过急的糖价会刺激下一制糖期种植和产量的双重激增,同时提高甘蔗收购价,使得企业资金的灵活性变差。另本轮上涨行情,前半部分是符合基本面的情况的正常上涨,而 6500 以上的部分属于完全脱离基本面,靠着各种炒作和资金大力推动的疯狂行情。我们认为,国庆节后国储抛售会给目前过热的糖价进行降温,糖价会回到 6300――6400 的合理区间来。建议前期低位多单可以趁着资金疯狂拉涨在 6700 之上全部平仓,利润已经超过 100%相当可观,不可太贪,以免机构大量平仓之时引发踩踏。(长江期货 )   农产品集购网16988-全国大宗农产品电商交易平台;【白糖、油脂、玉米、大豆、小麦、棉花、豆粕】免费资源发布、采购对接;报价-下点击前往报价,查看大宗农产品行情 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: