A review of the performance of the world’s largest asset class century the stock market bond + real -oboni

The global asset class performance review enlightenment hundred years: the stock market bond market > > commercial + real estate sina finance App: Live on-line blogger to tutor Jiepan listen to expert selection on Tournament Lin shares Niugu Societe Generale Securities Wang Han: review of the global performance of the asset categories of hundred years Abstract: 1) review of 100 years of history. Germany shares is the worst assets, far behind the other categories of assets, mainly affected by the war dragged down — the long term, to avoid the worst of risk assets is a priority; 2) after the end of World War II, the same with similar lethality of the exchange rate collapse; 3) long period "stock": a long cycle, > stock market bond market; > commodities, real estate, a global point of view, one of the best performing stock market stage and the stage of the global economy is closely related to the theme; 4): when the asset selection The growth of the economy from maturity to maturity, the stock and bond income gap gradually narrowed; 5) on our cycle, as well as the next ten years, asset allocation outlook. In the long term, avoiding the worst risk assets is the primary goal of the German V.S. Enlightenment from Australia: the cost of War (especially defeat). The performance of the asset of the past 100 years, there is a very interesting phenomenon, the German stock market over the past 100 years is the worst assets, the average annual income of -20.5% is far lower than that of other types of assets, which means that the long term, to avoid the worst of risk assets is the primary task of large class configuration. In contrast, the Australian stock market is one of the best performing assets. From the current economic strength, economic perspective, Germany seems to be even better. However, the performance of long-term assets are very different. Obviously, the war is the main reason leading to long-term gains in German assets is negative, 1910-1929 years, the German stock market fell by an average of 20%, followed by an average annual decline of 1940-1949 again in. Even after the end of the war, the German stock market rose steadily, but still can not fill the fall of the war. However, in contrast to Australia, relying on political and economic stability, in the beginning of each round of emerging economies as a source of resources and benefit. Similar to war: exchange rate collapse. After World War II, the world has no large-scale war. However, we found that after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, with the exchange rate began to float, the exchange rate collapse became the world’s assets after entering the era of peace of the invisible killer. As can be seen from the table, some of the emerging economies of the exchange rate depreciation is amazing. In this context of the exchange rate depreciation, any of its assets can not get a good return. And the emergence of a huge devaluation of the exchange rate economies are mostly political unrest in many countries. Long term perspective: what is the best asset? Stock market > bond market > commodity, real estate. From the long-term perspective of the past 100 years, the return of large categories of assets are roughly the following sort: the stock market > bond > commodities, real estate. Due to the problem of data availability (Survivor Bias), long period data are mainly limited to the past one hundred years相关的主题文章: